SSMDE – Finance / Operations Stability (3.1)

From “numbers + politics” to “numbers + declared stability + duty-of-care”

Problem → Fit

Problem. Cash logs and KPI tables don’t answer “Is this intake pattern stable?” Disputes live in spreadsheets, emails, and memory.
Fit. SSMDE attaches a bounded stability dial and a policy band with response windows to each finance event, then stamps it for replay.


The invariant math (portable to any ledger)

Use the bounded, order-invariant pipeline to compute the stability dial align (cash rhythm calm vs wobble):

a_c   := clamp(a_raw, -1+eps_a, +1-eps_a)
u     := atanh(a_c)
U     += w * u
W     += w
align := tanh( U / max(W, eps_w) )

Map align to a human band using published cutpoints (declared in the manifest):

band := band_from_align(align, manifest_id)

Collapse parity stays sacred:

phi((m,a)) = m

Finance totals remain byte-for-byte intact.


What the finance record looks like

Minimal (privacy-lean) and full (audit-ready) disclosure modes:

# minimal
{
  value: { cash_collected_usd: 18420.77 },
  band:  "A-",
  manifest_id: "FIN_Q4_CASH_STABILITY_vX"
}

# full
{
  value: { cash_collected_usd: 18420.77, ar_open_usd: 902113.40 },
  align: -0.31,
  band:  "A-",
  manifest_id: "FIN_Q4_CASH_STABILITY_vX",
  stamp: "SSMCLOCK1|2025-11-04T10:20:12Z|sha256=ab12d4...|prev=89c2aa..."
}


Example policy (cutpoints + response windows)

Declare once in the manifest; don’t change mid-quarter.

bands := [
  { name:"A++",   range:"[+0.60, +1.00)", response:"observe" },
  { name:"A0",    range:"[+0.10, +0.60)", response:"review weekly" },
  { name:"A-",    range:"[-0.30, +0.10)", response:"controller review <= 24h" },
  { name:"CRITICAL", range:"(-1.00, -0.30)", response:"controller + CFO <= 2h" }
]


How to derive a_raw (finance intuition)

You control how raw “stability hints” enter the lane (documented in the manifest). Common starters:

# example choices (pick ONE per manifest; declare it)
a_raw := trend_zscore(cash_collected_daily)            # deviation of daily intake vs seasonality
a_raw := atanh_clip(run_rate_convergence(signal))      # convergence of run rate to plan
a_raw := signed_dispersion(inflow_timing_jitter)       # timing jitter of payers
a_raw := -loss_ratio_spike_normalized                  # invert risk spikes for consistent semantics

Then apply the invariant pipeline (clamp → atanh → fuse → tanh). The meaning of positive/negative must be stated:

semantics := "positive = calmer/healthier intake, negative = unstable/worsening"


CFO view: three copy-ready cards

Daily cash post (full mode)

{
  value: { cash_collected_usd: 121_550.25, ar_open_usd: 5_210_000.00 },
  align: +0.44,
  band:  "A0",
  manifest_id: "FIN_Q4_CASH_STABILITY_vX",
  stamp: "SSMCLOCK1|2025-11-04T17:59:00Z|sha256=7e91...|prev=cb30..."
}

Read it: intake healthy; weekly review; policy vX in force; replayable.

Early-warning wobble

{
  value: { cash_collected_usd: 18_420.77 },
  align: -0.31,
  band:  "A-",
  manifest_id: "FIN_Q4_CASH_STABILITY_vX",
  stamp: "SSMCLOCK1|2025-11-04T10:20:12Z|sha256=ab12d4...|prev=89c2aa..."
}

Action: controller review ≤24h (from manifest).

Escalation event

{
  value: { cash_collected_usd: 6_201.10, ar_delinquent_30d_usd: 402_770.00 },
  align: -0.55,
  band:  "CRITICAL",
  manifest_id: "FIN_Q4_CASH_STABILITY_vX",
  stamp: "SSMCLOCK1|2025-11-04T23:10:45Z|sha256=fe07...|prev=7a11..."
}

Action: controller + CFO ≤2h; stamped for audit/insurer.


Workflow (who does what)

Producer (Treasury/ETL)

[ ] Compute a_raw per declared method
[ ] Run invariant pipeline → align
[ ] Emit band via manifest cutpoints
[ ] Attach manifest_id and stamp

Consumer (CFO/Controllers)

[ ] Route by band (A-→queue; CRITICAL→page human)
[ ] Verify stamp chain on ingest
[ ] Track SLA on response windows from manifest


Receiver-side verification (defense against vendor drift)

[ ] -1 < align < +1
[ ] band == band_from_align(align, manifest_id)
[ ] stamp.sha256 == sha256(bytes(canonical(record)))
[ ] chain(prev) verifies end-to-end
[ ] phi((m,a)) = m  # value untouched


Common pitfalls and fixes

Pitfall: “GREEN means OK everywhere.”
Fix: Keep semantics in the manifest; same label must map to declared numeric ranges and response windows.

Pitfall: Align computed with ad-hoc smoothing.
Fix: Only the bounded pipeline is normative. Any equivalent MUST preserve (-1,+1), order-invariance, and collapse parity.

Pitfall: Quietly tightening thresholds mid-incident.
Fix: That mints a new manifest_id. Stamps will expose the timeline.


Quick start (Day 1 → Day 30)

Day 1

emit {
  value: { cash_collected_usd: <number> },
  band:  "<A++|A0|A-|CRITICAL>",
  manifest_id: "<ID>"
}

Day 7

add align; begin stamping:
stamp := "SSMCLOCK1|<utc_iso>|sha256=<...>|prev=<...>"

Day 30

enforce SLA from bands; run weekly audit:
verify stamp chain; sample band replays vs manifest


One-line takeaway

Finance stops being numbers + politics and becomes numbers + declared stability + stamped duty-of-care—portable, replayable, and fair across teams and vendors.


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