Goal. Prove that adding a bounded stability lane beside a few core KPIs surfaces risk earlier without changing reported numbers.
Scope (start with 3–5 KPIs).
- AR / Collections health: publish the lane beside
m := collected/issued. - Refunds / Chargebacks reconciliation: publish daily agreement quality between platform and bank totals.
- Forecast vs Actuals stability: publish a lane that reflects on-plan vs jitter.
Minimal lane mappers (declare once, keep stable).
# Coverage (AR tails)
a_cov := 2*q - 1 # q in [0,1]
# Agreement (reconciliation quality)
d := |m_platform - m_bank|
a_agree := tanh( 1 - d / b ) # b > 0 is your declared bound
# Residual stability (forecast vs actual)
r := actual - forecast
a_resid := tanh( k*( 1 - |r|/s ) ) # s > 0, k > 0
# Ratios (for m := f/g; lane lift from factors)
a_div := tanh( atanh(a_f) - atanh(a_g) )
# Safety clamp (always)
a := clamp(a, -1+eps_a, +1-eps_a) # eps_a = 1e-6 (default)
# Collapse parity (numbers stay numbers)
phi((m,a)) = m
Bands (executive-friendly defaults).
A++: a>=0.75
A+ : 0.50<=a<0.75
A0 : 0.25<=a<0.50
A- : 0.10<=a<0.25
A--: a<0.10
# Hysteresis (anti-flicker)
promote if delta_a >= +0.05
demote if delta_a <= -0.05
Daily output (pilot CSV).
time, kpi, m, a, band, knobs_hash, build_id, stamp
# optional stamp: "SSMCLOCK1|iso_utc|rasi_idx|theta_deg|sha256(file)|chain"
Acceptance gates (executive level).
- Report parity: all published
mequal your current numbers. - Order-invariance: re-run as batch vs daily stream;
a_outstable within tolerance. - Provenance: stamps chain correctly day-to-day (if enabled).
- Actionability: at least two lines show earlier signals (band shifts or
adrift) that match known friction. - Noise reduction: fewer flickers after bands are applied.
Timeline (two weeks).
- Day 0: pick KPIs, confirm thresholds, set
k,s,b, assign owners. - Days 1–3: emit pilot CSVs with
a,band,knobs_hash,build_id,stamp; validatephi((m,a)) = m. - Days 4–7: review patterns; adjust only knobs (not SQL); lock the manifest.
- Days 8–10: extend to one slice (segment/region) to surface hidden stability debt.
- Days 11–14: executive readout; decide keep/extend.
Deliverables (end of Week 2).
- Executive brief (1–2 pages): band movements, early warnings, actions taken.
- Stamped logs: daily pilot CSVs (if stamps enabled).
- Locked manifest: ASCII with knobs, policies, mappings, checksum.
Roles.
- Finance owner: chooses KPIs/thresholds; signs off on parity of
m. - Data/BI: adds columns and bands; wires dashboards (no SQL rewrites to
m). - Internal audit: checks stamps, manifest completeness, and replay.
Guardrails.
- Read-only start: no control/policy changes during the pilot.
- Declared knobs only: any change regenerates
knobs_hash. - No silent math: every mapper and parameter is in the manifest; every day is reproducible.
Navigation
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SSM-Audit – Table of Contents
Frequently asked questions
SSM-Audit – Q & A
SHUNYAYA 