Signups spiked, but paid conversions lag and tickets surge
Question
Our campaign crushed it. Signups jumped way above plan, but paid conversions are trailing and support tickets spike every Friday. NPS slipped a bit, yet all our top-line charts still look strong. I cannot reconcile the buzz with the friction. Why is this happening?
Answer ✅
Promotions can inflate the headline while the underlying customer path gets noisier. SSM-Audit adds a simple stability band beside the KPIs you already track, so you can see whether the growth is repeatable or fragile. The bands would have shown that the promo changed the mix and timing of work, creating pressure that the averages hide.
What the bands would have shown 📊
• Paid conversion rate sliding from A+ toward A0 / A- after the promo
• Ticket volume per new signup worsening to A- / A–, especially late week
• Time-to-first-value degrading to A- (users need more help to activate)
• NPS by cohort weakening for promo entrants while steady for organic cohorts
• Weekend spillovers in onboarding and support, signalling persistent load
What to do now 🛠️
- Split by cohort: promo vs organic vs partner. Review bands by cohort weekly.
- Split by journey step: activation, conversion, first value, week-4 retention.
- Stabilize conversion: tighten offer clarity, reduce friction on the 2 or 3 top paths, and add in-product guidance.
- Stabilize support: pre-answer top questions in-product; auto-route high-friction cohorts; smooth Friday spikes.
- Protect NPS: prioritize fixes that lift the promo cohort bands back to A+ before scaling the next campaign.
How SSM-Audit helps (practicalities) 🌟
• No additional infrastructure: runs beside your existing KPIs and reports.
• Numbers unchanged: your dashboards remain intact; stability is a read-only overlay.
• Easy to use: spreadsheet or BI friendly; one lightweight weekly review.
• Universal language: A++ / A+ / A0 / A- / A– aligns marketing, product, and support fast.
CLI 💻 — try our mini Calculator to identify the drift
(Mini CLI Download Page)
Feed your CSV and see bands and drift at a glance (numbers unchanged).
# Paid conversion rate
ssm_audit_mini_calc customers.csv --kpi "Paid Conversion Rate" \
--out bands_conversion.csv --plot_kpi "Paid Conversion Rate" --build_id q2
# Tickets per new signup
ssm_audit_mini_calc customers.csv --kpi "Tickets per New Signup" \
--out bands_tickets.csv --plot_kpi "Tickets per New Signup" --build_id q2
# Time to first value
ssm_audit_mini_calc customers.csv --kpi "Time to First Value" \
--out bands_ttfv.csv --plot_kpi "Time to First Value" --build_id q2
Outputs you’ll get:
- CSV with stability bands for each timestamp (e.g.,
bands_conversion.csv). - A drift chart per KPI (
--plot_kpi) to visualize degradation or recovery. - Optional alerts if you enable thresholds in your setup.
Technical notes
Representation: x = (m, a) with a in (-1, +1)
Collapse parity: phi((m,a)) = m
Order-invariant pooling:
U = sum(w_i * atanh(a_i))
W = sum(w_i)
a_out = tanh( U / max(W, eps_w) )
Typical bands (example):
A++: a >= 0.75
A+: 0.50 - 0.75
A0: 0.25 - 0.50
A-: 0.10 - 0.25
A--: a < 0.10
Navigation
Back: SSM-Audit Q&A Series – Strategy (Question 1)
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Page disclaimer
Illustrative scenario for research and education. Observation-only; do not use for critical decisions without independent validation.
SHUNYAYA 