SSM-Audit Q&A Series – Agriculture & Post-Harvest (Question 50)

Acreage hit plan, yet procurement and storage losses rose

Question
We planted on schedule and acreage hit plan. But procurement arrivals bunched after rains, drying backlogs formed, moisture and aflatoxin failures climbed in two districts, cold-chain breaks spoiled perishables, and storage shrink rose. Processors report lower milling yields despite similar grades. How can supply feel unstable when planting was on target?

Answer ✅
Field targets can mask post-harvest fragility. If harvests surge into short drying windows, moisture meters drift, cold-chain excursions rise, or storage fills unevenly, you “hit acreage” while quality and yields slip. SSM-Audit adds a stability band beside the KPIs you already track so you see whether the crop moves calm and repeatable from field to processor—or leaks value in spikes and delays.

What the bands would have shown 📊
• Procurement arrival cadence sliding A+ -> A0 (trucks queue after rain bursts)
• Moisture/quality stability degrading to A- (higher fails for moisture, aflatoxin, FFA)
• Drying capacity stability weakening A0 -> A- (backlogs, longer time-to-dry)
• Cold-chain excursion stability tilting A0 -> A- (temp breaks in milk/fruit veg routes)
• Storage loss/shrink stability dipping A0 -> A- (hot spots, pest pressure, seepage)
• Processing yield stability softening A+ -> A0 (milling/oil extraction yield variance)

What to do now 🛠️

  1. Band the post-harvest loop: harvest -> procurement arrivals -> drying -> QA -> storage -> transport (cold/ambient) -> processing yield, by district and crop.
  2. De-peak arrivals: when arrival band < A0, stagger buying windows, add satellite centers, and pre-book tarps/temporary pads pre-rain.
  3. Protect moisture/quality: if quality band < A0, deploy calibrated meters, triage wet lots to priority dryers, and enforce moisture <= target before storage.
  4. Expand drying headroom: when drying band < A0, add mobile dryers and shift to smaller, more frequent batches until backlog clears.
  5. Harden the cold chain: if excursion band < A0, add time–temp indicators, route alarms, and swap lanes with high failure minutes.
  6. Stabilize storage: when shrink band < A0, rotate stacks, fumigate on schedule, monitor temp/RH hotspots, and rebalance occupancy across silos.
  7. Raise processing yields: if yield band < A0, segregate wet/clean lots, adjust mill settings, and feed drier, higher-grade inputs first.

How SSM-Audit helps (practicalities) 🌟
• No additional infrastructure: runs beside weighbridge, QA logs, store ledgers, fleet telemetry, and mill reports.
• Numbers unchanged: tonnage, grades, and yields remain as reported; stability is a read-only overlay.
• Easy to use: spreadsheet/BI friendly; one lightweight weekly review with procurement, QA, storage, logistics, and processing.
• Universal language: A++ / A+ / A0 / A- / A– aligns farmers, FPOs/co-ops, buyers, and processors quickly.

CLI 💻 — try our mini Calculator to identify the drift
(Mini CLI Download Page)
Feed your CSVs and see bands and drift at a glance (numbers unchanged).

# Procurement arrival cadence (trucks per hour; bunching)
ssm_audit_mini_calc agri.csv --kpi "Procurement Arrival Cadence" \
  --out bands_arrivals.csv --plot_kpi "Procurement Arrival Cadence" --build_id ag

# Moisture/quality stability (moisture %, aflatoxin/FFA pass rate)
ssm_audit_mini_calc agri.csv --kpi "Moisture/Quality Stability" \
  --out bands_quality.csv --plot_kpi "Moisture/Quality Stability" --build_id ag

# Drying capacity stability (time-to-dry, queue length)
ssm_audit_mini_calc agri.csv --kpi "Drying Capacity Stability" \
  --out bands_drying.csv --plot_kpi "Drying Capacity Stability" --build_id ag

# Cold-chain excursion stability (minutes out-of-range per trip)
ssm_audit_mini_calc agri.csv --kpi "Cold-Chain Excursion Stability" \
  --out bands_cold.csv --plot_kpi "Cold-Chain Excursion Stability" --build_id ag

# Storage loss/shrink stability (weight loss/pest incidence)
ssm_audit_mini_calc agri.csv --kpi "Storage Loss Stability" \
  --out bands_storage.csv --plot_kpi "Storage Loss Stability" --build_id ag

# Processing yield stability (milling/oil extraction yield)
ssm_audit_mini_calc agri.csv --kpi "Processing Yield Stability" \
  --out bands_yield.csv --plot_kpi "Processing Yield Stability" --build_id ag

Outputs you will get:
• CSVs for each KPI (e.g., bands_drying.csv).
• Drift charts per KPI (--plot_kpi) showing exactly where value leaks (rain windows, drying queues, cold breaks, hot silos).
• Optional alerts if you enable thresholds.

Technical notes

Representation: x = (m, a) with a in (-1, +1)
Collapse parity: phi((m,a)) = m
Order-invariant pooling:
  U = sum(w_i * atanh(a_i))
  W = sum(w_i)
  a_out = tanh( U / max(W, eps_w) )

Typical bands (example):
  A++: a >= 0.75
  A+:  0.50 - 0.75
  A0:  0.25 - 0.50
  A-:  0.10 - 0.25
  A--: a < 0.10

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Page disclaimer
Illustrative scenario for research and education. Observation-only; do not use for critical decisions without independent validation.