What changes (and what does not)
- Numbers stay the same. Classical KPIs remain intact by construction:
phi((m,a)) = m. - You gain a lane. A bounded stability lane
a in (-1,+1)sits beside each KPI to show sturdiness vs. fragility at a glance. - You act on m, not a. The lane drives visibility, bands, and escalation policy; it does not overwrite
m.
What you get on day 1
- Earlier truth. Simple bands
A++/A+/A0/A-/A--reveal calm vs. fragile spans before surprises. - Order-invariant signal. Stream, batch, or shuffled rows produce the same lane.
- Reproducibility. A tiny fingerprint travels with outputs.
# Order-invariant fuse (U/W rule)
a_out := tanh( (SUM w*atanh(a)) / max(SUM w, eps_w) )
# Reproducibility fingerprint
knobs_hash := sha256( ascii(canonical_json(knobs)) )
How to read the lane
# Bands (defaults)
A++: a>=0.75
A+ : a>=0.50
A0 : a>=0.25
A- : a>=0.10
else A--
# Hysteresis (anti-churn)
promote if delta_a >= +0.05
demote if delta_a <= -0.05
Portfolio view (SDI)
# Order-invariant portfolio index across selected KPIs
a_sdi := tanh( (SUM atanh(a_i)) / n )
What good looks like
- Steady majority in A0/A+ (or better) with small
delta_a. - Flat to positive SDI over weeks (
a_sdinear stable). - Localized dips that recover quickly (not systemic, not correlated).
What to escalate
- Persistent A- pockets or any drift toward
A--. - Downward slope such as
slope_7d <= -0.02on key KPIs or SDI. - Degrade patterns (for example,
degrade_2of3) across related KPIs.
Pilot plan (10 days, no rewrites)
- Pick 3-5 KPIs (for example, AR collected/issued, refunds/chargebacks, forecast vs actual).
- Run once with the CLI (CSV in, CSV out) to publish
aandbandbesidem. - Review together using the bands and SDI page; note early warnings.
- Freeze knobs and stamp outputs if desired; share the evidence pack.
One-screen math (ASCII, unchanged across pages)
phi((m,a)) = m
a := clamp(a, -1+eps_a, +1-eps_a)
a_out := tanh( (SUM w*atanh(a)) / max(SUM w, eps_w) )
a_sdi := tanh( (SUM atanh(a_i)) / n )
# defaults
eps_a=1e-6
eps_w=1e-12
promote=+0.05
demote=-0.05
Navigation
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SSM-Audit – Q & A