Abstract
We lift probability theory to pairs (m, a) so randomness captures both size and stability. Expectations, variances, LLN/CLT, and characteristic functions follow by working on the magnitude channel and an alignment-aware strength channel, and collapse exactly to classical probability when a = +1.
Symbolic probability space
A symbolic probability space is a triple (Omega, F, P_s) where:
Omega ⊆ R × [-1, +1]contains symbolic numerals(m, a).Fis a sigma-algebra onOmega(e.g., Borel onR × [-1, +1]).P_s : F -> [0, 1]is a probability measure (classical axioms).
Collapse consistency. Under phi(m, a) = m, if a = +1 almost surely, then P_s ∘ phi^{-1} is an ordinary probability measure on R.
Symbolic random variables and projections
A symbolic r.v. is a measurable map X : Omega -> R × [-1, +1], X(omega) = ( m(omega), a(omega) ).
- Classical part:
pi_m(X) = m. - Alignment part:
pi_a(X) = a.
In prose we write “a” for alignment; inside pairs
(m, a)we just writea.
Expectations (two defaults)
- Pair expectation (componentwise)
E_s[X] = ( E[m] , E[a] )
Collapse: if a = +1 a.s., then E_s[X] = ( E[m] , +1 ).
- Strength expectation (scalar, choose beta in [0, 1])
S_beta(m, a) = m * (1 - beta*(1 - a)) # S_0 = m, S_1 = m*a
E_beta[X] = E[ S_beta(m, a) ]
Worked example. P{X=(2,+1)}=0.5, P{X=(2,0)}=0.5.E[m]=2, E[a]=0.5 ⇒ E_s[X]=(2, 0.5).E_1[X]=E[m*a]=0.5*(2*1)+0.5*(2*0)=1.
Variance, covariance, and risk views
- Symbolic variance (pair):
Var_s[X] = ( Var[m] , Var[a] ). - Cross-covariance:
Cov(m, a) = E[(m - E[m]) (a - E[a])]. - Strength variance:
Var_beta[X] = Var( S_beta(m, a) ).
Hidden-instability illustration.
If X alternates between (10, +0.9) and (10, -0.9) with equal probability:Var[m]=0, Var[a]=0.81, but Var_1[X]=Var(10*a)=100*0.81=81 — large risk visible only via alignment.
Distributions (model in rapidity)
Let u = atanh(a) with standard clamp in applications.
- Symbolic normal (u–Gaussian).
X ~ N_s( mu=(m0, a0), sigmas=(sigma_m, sigma_u) )with density in(m, u)proportional to
exp( -0.5 * [ (m - m0)^2 / sigma_m^2 + (u - u0)^2 / sigma_u^2 ] ), u0 = atanh(a0)
(If parameterized in a, include the Jacobian factor 1/(1 - a^2).)
- Symbolic Bernoulli (alignment-coded).
P{ X = (1, +1) } = p,P{ X = (1, -1) } = 1 - p. - Zearo law.
Support onI = { (m, 0) }: neutral-but-fragile outcomes concentrated ata = 0.
Independence and conditioning
- Independence is classical on
Omega: two pairs are independent if their joint law factors. - Conditional expectation (componentwise):
E_s[ X | G ] = ( E[m|G] , E[a|G] )
E_beta[ X | G ] = E[ S_beta(m, a) | G ]
Tower and linearity laws hold in each channel.
Law of Large Numbers (LLN) — symbolic sample mean
For i.i.d. X_i = (m_i, a_i), aggregate with the associative evaluation rule:
w_i = |m_i|^gamma # default gamma = 1
M_n = sum_i m_i
U_n = sum_i w_i * atanh( clamp(a_i, -1+eps, +1-eps) )
W_n = sum_i w_i
A_n = tanh( U_n / max(W_n, tiny) )
mean = ( M_n / n , A_n )
If E|m| < ∞, E[w * |atanh(a)|] < ∞, and E[w] > 0, then a.s.
M_n / n -> E[m], A_n -> tanh( E[w*atanh(a)] / E[w] )
Collapse: if a = +1 a.s., then A_n -> +1 and M_n / n -> E[m] (classical LLN).
Central Limit Theorem (CLT) — strength embedding
Let Y = ( m , S_beta(m, a) ).
If Y has finite covariance, the classical 2D CLT applies to
(1/sqrt(n)) * sum_i ( Y_i - E[Y] )
This yields Gaussian limits for both magnitude and beta-strength channels, enabling standard inference with alignment awareness.
Characteristic functions (beta-embedding)
phi_X(t1, t2) = E[ exp( i * ( t1*m + t2*S_beta(m, a) ) ) ]
Spectral methods and LLN/CLT proofs reduce to classical arguments on the embedded real vector.
Tail and concentration (practical note)
If |m| is sub-Gaussian and |atanh(a)| is sub-exponential (typical with clamping), then S_beta is sub-exponential. Bernstein/Hoeffding-type bounds apply to empirical strengths, and to A_n via the delta method in u-space.
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Disclaimer
Observation only. Results reproduce mathematically; domain claims require independent peer review. Defaults: gamma = 1, mult_mode = M2, clamp_eps = 1e-6, |a| < 1.