Why this page. Understand how the calm gate g_t behaves and how to set its parameters once per study so results stay bounded, reproducible, and observation-only.
5.3 Intuition and guarantees
Intuition (plain ASCII)
- Calm vs edge.
Z_tmeasures drift/variability (calm near0). When drift is low and stays below the slow trackA_t, the system “earns calm” and the gate opens (g_tgrows). Sudden turbulence or sustained mismatch (Delta_t = |Z_t - A_t|) closes the gate (g_tshrinks). - Two levers. The denominator
1 + Z_t + kappa*Delta_tpenalizes turbulence instantly; the numerator1 - exp(-mu*Q_t)rewards sustained calm viaQ_t. - Bounded multiplicative effect. The gate scales preference as
RSI_env = g_t * RSI, never changing its sign.
Guarantees (ASCII)
g_t = (1 / (1 + Z_t + kappa * Delta_t)) * (1 - exp(-mu * Q_t))
Delta_t = abs(Z_t - A_t)
Q_t = rho * Q_prev + (1 - rho) * clip(A_t - Z_t, 0, 1)
- Boundedness.
0 <= g_t < 1by construction (1 - exp(-mu*Q_t) in [0,1), denominator>= 1). With a final clip,g_t in [0,1]. - Monotone calm. If
Z_tdrops and stays belowA_t, thenclip(A_t - Z_t, 0, 1) > 0soQ_tincreases; the denominator also decreases (smallerZ_t, smallerDelta_t). Both effects increaseg_t. - Edge sensitivity. A spike in
Z_tor largeDelta_traises the denominator immediately, sog_tdrops at once; whenZ_t > A_t, theQ_tincrement is0, so earned calm decays viarho. - Memory.
rhocontrols how quickly earned calm fades. Largerrho⇒ longer memory (slower decay ofQ_t). - Sign preservation.
g_t >= 0impliessign(RSI_env) = sign(RSI)and|RSI_env| <= |RSI|. - Determinism. With a fixed lane canon, normalization, and parameters, the mapping
(Z_t, A_t, Q_prev) -> g_tis deterministic and piecewise-smooth (kinks only atclip).
Practical knobs (publish once per study)
kappatunes instant penalty for misalignment (Delta_t).mutunes how fast earned calm (Q_t) opens the gate.rhosets the calm memory (retention).- Keep the lane canon, normalization, and windowing fixed; publish all values and guards in the manifest.
5.4 Parameter policy (declare once per study)
Defaults (ASCII, copy-ready)
kappa = 0.5 # weight on instantaneous misalignment Delta_t
mu = 0.8 # gain for converting calm stock Q_t into g_t
rho = 0.9 # calm memory (0 -> forgetful, 1 -> very sticky)
L = context # window for Z_t (choose per process timescale)
wF..wS = context # fusion weights for S_t (non-negative; sum to 1)
Recommended ranges and guidance
kappa: 0.2..1.5(higher penalizes sudden drift/misalignment more strongly).mu: 0.3..2.0(higher accelerates gate opening when calm accumulates).rho: 0.6..0.98(memory of calm; larger keeps calm longer).L:set to the characteristic timescale of variation (seconds/minutes/hours as appropriate).wF..wS:non-negative, sum to1; publish exact values and lane meanings.
Memory half-life helper (discrete steps, ASCII)
# choose target half-life h (in steps) for Q_t to halve when no new calm accrues
rho = 0.5 ** (1 / h) # since rho^h = 0.5
# inverse (given rho, get h):
h = log(0.5) / log(rho)
Sanity checks (must hold)
0 < kappa,0 < mu,0 < rho < 1.L > 0.wF..wS >= 0andsum(weights) = 1.- Resulting
Z_t, A_t, Q_tremain in[0,1];g_tis clamped to[0,1].
Reporting requirement
Publish all chosen values and the exact Z_t recipe (lane definitions, normalizations, weights, window L, drift extractor, compressor) in the Reproducibility Manifest.
Minimal manifest stub (ASCII)
gate_params:
kappa: 0.5
mu: 0.8
rho: 0.9
window_L: "5 min"
weights: {"F":0.25,"W":0.20,"V":0.20,"E":0.20,"S":0.15}
Z_recipe:
lanes: ["F","W","V","E","S"]
normalize: {"F":"lin01(F_lo,F_hi)","W":"logi01(kW,x0W)","V":"lin01","E":"lin01","S":"lin01"}
extractor: "var-log" # alternatives: mad | ewma2 | bandpower
compressor: "Z = Z_raw/(1+Z_raw)"
clamps: {"Z":[0,1],"A":[0,1],"Q":[0,1],"g":[0,1]}
Navigation
Previous — How to compute Z_t (signal-to-drift) (5.2)
Next — A_t (slow track) and Q_t (calm accumulator) (5.5, 5.6)
Disclaimer (observation-only). All formulas and results are observation-only—not predictive or operational—and require peer validation and governance before any deployment.